Wieboldt Hall, Room 150,
Northwestern University, Chicago Campus,
340 East Superior Street,
Chicago, IL 60611-3008
1:25pm Opening Remarks
1:30 - 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences
Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm)
Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber)
Speaker: Todd Henderson (1:45-2:05pm)
Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance (Michael Abramowicz and Todd Henderson)
Predicting Crime (Todd Henderson, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz)
Discussion (2:05pm - 2:15pm)
2:20pm-3:10pm Session 2: Security Design and Theory
Speaker: Hajime Mizuyama (2:15 pm -- 2:30pm)
Intra-Firm Prediction Market System Using VIPS for Demand Forecasting (Hajime Mizuyama)
Speaker: Stefan Stathel (2:30 pm --2:45pm)
Information Efficiency and Liquidity in Information Markets: A market-maker based approach (Stefan Stathel, Clemens van Dinther, and Stefan Luckner)
Speaker: Eiichero Kazumori (2:45 pm -- 3:00pm)
A Strategic Theory of Markets (Eiichiro Kazumori)
Discussion (3pm-3:10pm)
3:10pm-3:30pm: Break
3:30-4:25pm: Session 3: Event Detection
Speaker: Todd Kuethe (3:30 - 3:45pm)
Identifying "Tipping Points" in US Presidential Campaigns: Evidence from Prediction Market Prices 1992-2004 ( Todd H. Kuethe, David Ubilava, Benoit Delbecq, and Kenneth A. Foster)
Speaker: George Tziralis (3:45pm - 4:00pm)
Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling (George Tziralis and Panos Ipeirotis)
Speaker: Abe Othman (4:00pm-4:15pm)
Time Inconsistency and Uncertainty Aversion in Information Markets ( Ivan Corwin and Abe Othman)
Discussion (4:15pm-4:25pm)
Session 4: Comparison to Alternatives (4:25-4:55pm)
Speaker: Andreas Graefe (4:25-4:45pm)
Can you beat the market? Accuracy of Individual and Group Post-Prediction Market Judgments (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
Group Decision Making - Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi, and Prediction Markets Compared (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)