Third Workshop on Prediction Markets


July 9th, 2008

Wieboldt Hall, Room 150, Northwestern University, Chicago Campus, 340 East Superior Street, Chicago, IL 60611-3008

1:25pm Opening Remarks

1:30 - 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences

Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm) Speaker: Todd Henderson (1:45-2:05pm) Discussion (2:05pm - 2:15pm)

2:20pm-3:10pm Session 2: Security Design and Theory

Speaker: Hajime Mizuyama (2:15 pm -- 2:30pm) Speaker: Stefan Stathel (2:30 pm --2:45pm) Speaker: Eiichero Kazumori (2:45 pm -- 3:00pm) Discussion (3pm-3:10pm)

3:10pm-3:30pm: Break

3:30-4:25pm: Session 3: Event Detection

Speaker: Todd Kuethe (3:30 - 3:45pm)
  • Identifying "Tipping Points" in US Presidential Campaigns: Evidence from Prediction Market Prices 1992-2004 ( Todd H. Kuethe, David Ubilava, Benoit Delbecq, and Kenneth A. Foster)
Speaker: George Tziralis (3:45pm - 4:00pm)
  • Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling (George Tziralis and Panos Ipeirotis)
Speaker: Abe Othman (4:00pm-4:15pm)
  • Time Inconsistency and Uncertainty Aversion in Information Markets ( Ivan Corwin and Abe Othman)
Discussion (4:15pm-4:25pm)

Session 4: Comparison to Alternatives (4:25-4:55pm)

Speaker: Andreas Graefe (4:25-4:45pm)
  • Can you beat the market? Accuracy of Individual and Group Post-Prediction Market Judgments (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
  • Group Decision Making - Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi, and Prediction Markets Compared (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
Discussion: 4:45-4:55pm

Wrap-up: 4:55-5pm

EC Welcome Reception: 5-8pm (Room 440)